Experience Levels in Steel Panthers and simulating Low Intensity Conflicts
(Significantly Updated/Re-written 25 April 2016)

A long time ago (circa 2006), I played around with a “Canadians in Darfur” campaign for Steel Panthers: Main Battle Tank; and I found that I was getting 40~ Canadian casualties versus 100~ rebel casualties in my playtests.

This...seemed a bit off, since the ex-Canadian soldier I was bouncing ideas off commented about the kill ratios that the Canadian Forces were achieving in Afghanistan around that time.

So I went into the unit stats, and found that the Red Militias had experience/morale ratings in the neighborhood of 50.

I lowered their ratings to 5 Experience, and 30 Morale; and found that this produced very good results in line with reality, with about three or four Canadian casualties to eighty plus Rebel, with Red Militia units' fire being generally ineffective and the units breaking after a few casualties, which is in keeping with the reality of most untrained mobs of people across the world, such as in Africa:

Typical African Militiaman in battle; Monrovia, Liberia circa 2005.
Note use of sideways firing and weapon held high over head, preventing accurate aimed fire.

Typical African Militiaman Squad Weapon in battle; Monrovia, Liberia circa 2005.
Weapon is being duck-walked on target with automatic fire.

Generally, there are only a very few people in Africa who know how to handle and fire their weapons; and they're usually foreign troops like the French Foreign Legion or mercenaries. In some instances, they may actually be government troops trained by others.

A government soldier fires a burst at rebels in battle; Monrovia, Liberia circa 2005.
Notice how he keeps a straight sight-line from his eye to the front sights of the weapon?

Finding the “Correct” Experience / Morale level for the force you are simulating

Way back when on the old Usenet group soc.history.what-if , David Flin posted on 8 May 2002 a very concise summary of basic national troop qualities:

As a rough rule of thumb, attacking requires about a 3-1 ratio of effectiveness. When troop and equipment quality is comparable, that comes down to a 3-1 ratio in numbers. It is harder to calculate when troop and equipment quality is not roughly equal (the most obvious example - to me, at any rate, is the Falklands Conflict of 1982. Troop qualities weren't approximately equal, with consequential effects).

As a rough rule of thumb, it takes about 1 year to move large bodies of troops up 1 level of competence when in a war situation. Thus when forces are starting from scratch, you would expect the following progression:

0-1: Untrained militia. Capable of doing one thing at a time, very slowly. Liable to do unpredictable and unplanned actions at any time (fleeing in blind panic, massacring civilians out of hand, failing to carry out the most simple of tasks. Able to cover minimal distance of travel in one day.

1-2: Trained militia. Capable of doing one thing at a time effectively, or two things at a time slowly and with difficulty. Can sit tight and hold a position with some ease, but finds it much harder to both move and fight. Able to cover moderate distances of travel in one day.

2-3: Competent professional. Capable of doing two things at a time effectively (move and fight), and more than two things at a time with difficulty (conduct a fighting withdrawal). Can take simple positions effectively, but gets snagged up on complex defences (such as those defended by troops capable of counter-attacks).

3-4: Well-trained professional.

4+: War-weary professional. Capable of carrying out anything you want them to, but only too well aware of their own mortality, and well able to calculate the risk calculations. Likely to avoid putting themselves into harms way.

We can see from WW1, and the British experience, that this applies. In 1914, Britain effectively used up its professional army. In 1915, it used up its reserves. In 1916, it was using 'Kitchener's Army', which was longer on pluck than on ability, and as a result, you had such events as the Somme. In 1917, the British army was better able to hold its own, although not without some problems. In 1918, it had reached the level of being able to carry out effective attacks. By 1920, it would have been worn out and unable to continue, only by this time, every one else would have also given up.

A rough numerical approximation of the rules of thumb above in Steel Panthers format would be:

Exceptions to the Grading System

You would of course have to adjust the experience and morale ratings by hand to best fit the situation. Some situations are:

• Motivation/Lack of Motivation in the Unit. One of the primary reasons ISIS has done so well (circa 2014-2015) is that unlike the other rebel groups and the Syrian Government, they have people who believe in what they're fighting for. When everyone else in the region is at a low competence level, the group that's extremely enthusiastic (high morale) about what they're doing will do better.

• Manpower Raids. Many German Infantry divisions in WW2 were forced to give up large amounts of men at various points during their careers. A good example is the German 65th Infantrie Division, which was formed on 15 July 1942 with a 270 man cadre (the Officers were WWI veterans who were overage, while the enlisted were mostly returning wounded), plus 10,000 new recruits who joined the division in July 1942. Unfortunately, the 65th Infantrie Division was continually stripped of men, with 7,000 men being taken in September 1942 as replacements for other divisions and another 3,600 men sent to the 39th Infantrie Division between November 1942 and April 1943. Finally, 1,000 men were stripped away to act as cadre for the 44th Infantrie Division and 19th Luftwaffe Field Division in February 1943. Overall, the 65th Infantrie Division suffered the loss of 112% of it's initial cadre at various points between July 1942 and February 1943, which severely affected the overall quality of the division, as it was declared combat ready in June 1943; only four months after the raids for manpower had ended. (Source: Second Front Now – 1943 by Walter Scott Dunn)

• Heavy Losses. Das Reich at Kursk suffered 1,140 casualties (Killed, Wounded, Missing) over the six days from 11 July to 16 July 1943 (Source: Kursk 1943: A Statistical Analysis by Frankson and Zetterling). That's approximately 8% of a Panzergrenadier Division's authorized strength (approx 14,000) in a very short time period, which would be concentrated amongst the front line combat units such as the Panzergrenadier and Panzer units, degrading their experience and morale.

• It's an Omega Unit. There have been many terms for this type of unit throughout history. Essentially, an Omega Unit is a dumping ground where problem children are left. Eventually, when an Omega Unit becomes too blatant, the higher ups either break it up for good, or purge it of manpower and revive it as a respectable unit. Inevitably another Omega Unit forms elsewhere. Known examples are: the US Navy's conventionally powered carriers circa 1994-2009 and the US Army's 69th Infantry Regiment (New York) aka “the Irish Brigade” from the 1970s to the late 1990s.

• Quality Limitations. All armies around the world are short of good NCOs. A serious problem for many nations with limited manpower resources is that if there's a large number of “Special Forces” units with high recruiting standards, then those units will suck away good quality recruits from the “Regular” force. Essentially, someone who might be a good Sergeant in an Armored/Infantry Division instead serves as a Corporal in a specialist unit, with a significantly higher chance of being killed in action. In extremely power centralized nations (such as your typical Third World Nation), the Palace Guard gets first pick at quality recruits, crippling the rest of the military by depriving them of NCOs. Some nations, such as Thailand, get around this by having Special Forces be a career development checklist – you go to a Scout-Sniper Recon unit, get trained to the required standard, and then after a certain period of time, you go back to the “normal” military, and take your learned skills with you to help train the “normal” forces.

Simulating VBIEDs (Suicide Car Bombs)

If as a scenario creator, you need to have various suicide weapons; look in MBT OBAT17 Iraq in unit slots 990 to 994. You have:

990 Suicide Bomber
991 Truck Bomb
992 IED
993 Booby Trap
994 Tanker Bomb

To access them in game, load up a battle set in Iraq after about 2003, go to the MISC screen and they'll be in the formations:

Suicide Trucks
IEDs
Suicide Bombers